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Tidbits from pdf europe

The pdf conference in Barcelona was fascinating, as expected of course. Great atmosphere, great crowd, great ideas. So, here are a few belated scattered tidbits and thoughts:

Pdf being a New York-born conference brought in a whole bunch of people from the other side of the Atlantic, people we usually “follow” through the web. The heavy artillery were of course the people who were involved with the Obama campaign. Now, a couple of things come to mind when talking about the Obama campaign.

First of all, our American friends have a tendency to paint an almost activist picture of the campaign. There is always talk around notions of “bottom-up”, “citizen engagement”, “grassroots mobilization” and so on. However one cannot fail to notice that the Obama campaign was still a … hmm…well, “campaign”. Which means that by definition was a top-down exercise and a very expensive one.

Listening to Joe Rospars from Blue State Digital and Kate Albright-Hanna describe their experiences – possibly for the 1000th time – this came very clear.  The “dinner with Obama” idea is a campaign idea, the 2.000 videos (!) produced and the incredible amount of content developed and shot across the web galaxy can only be produced at great expense in money, human effort, coordination and so on. Not considering the sophisticated web platforms developed and maintained.
This is not to detract in any way from the brilliance of the campaign. On the contrary. But it is worth reminding because too many politicians in Europe now “want whatever he’s had” (remember Meg Ryan’s famous orgasm scene?).

What do European politicians want?

And what’s worse, some still think that the internet is a “cheap campaign medium”. Nothing can be further from the truth of course and for all of us working in the field know that it is a highly labour-intensive effort. However, this point was never raised by us starry-eyed Europeans. Throughout the pdf conference the lines were consistently blurred; between online political marketing and the web’s potential for self-organization and mass mobilization or novel e-democracy experiments for which old Europe can still show a thing or two (at the same time, in Malmo, Sweden an eGov exhibition was showcasing 52 projects from all over Europe).

I think that the success of the Obama campaign must be attributed to a conscious strategic decision to invest heavily on the web vs offline media. And with crystal clear conversion metrics: Votes & Donations.

On the question then of whether the Obama case can be copy-pasted to Europe most European commentators rightly gave a clear NO answer and Dominique Piotet emphasized this from day1. But I didn’t hear (I did not follow of course all the parallel breakout sessions) the simple argument that the US President has always been nominated through a bottom-up process whereby you need to form community support two years before election time whereas in Europe political parties more-or-less “appoint” their leaders. It’s worth re-reading this article in MotherJones which explained well the online/offline link.

Other tidbits that I can recall:

  • Linkfluence presented their First Map of the Eurosphere. An impressive visual map of the structure and dynamics of the European political web and the communities that form inside it. We recall of course the Politicosphere, the similar work they carried out for the American presidential elections.
  • Rishi Saha, Head of New Media for the Tories, reminded us that politics in the past was never the cosy, small-town, get-together, personal, honest, face-to-face affair that some people think we are moving away from in this internet age. In this sense today, he said, “we are not re-inventing politics, we invent politics”. I couldn’t agree more.
  • A true activist spirit was demonstrated by Jeremie Zimmermann who put the case of the mobilization against the Telecoms Package. He explained how decisions were constantly overturned between the European Parliament -where the case went public -and the Council of Ministers -where decisions were taken behind closed doors. “When the issue was decided in public we won, when it was decided behind closed doors we lost”, he said (not exact words). Jeremie said that putting relevant and accessible info on the web raises the political cost for the politicians and also made a useful distinction between “lobbying” (you have to be nice to everybody) and “advocacy” (you have to annoy some).
  • Jack Thurston put the case of farmsubsidy.org which is a great case of a european transparency project, tracking the single largest EU budget, out of which 85% goes to the 18% wealthiest farmers in the EU. He noted the significant difficulties they had in unlocking the data from government agencies and how important it was to have succeeded in doing so for the two first countries, Denmark and UK. The rest had to follow. Their umbrella project is followthemoney.eu and the next project is the fish subsidy programme. Good luck to them.
  • Julian Assange of Wikileaks, said that there are 200-300 secret gag orders in the UK forbidding press to write about certain topics, something that cought many people by surprise, and he wondered why aren’t more journalists arrested in Europe, which he attributed to a “lack of courage”.

But for me the higlights were the following, which just confirmed my preconceived “groupie” tendencies:

  • Tom Steinberg of MySociety.org , who won’t tell you that for many in the UK he is a “black sheep” (a medal of honour) because he builds innovative projects on a shoestring budget (6.000 GBP  for the whatdotheyknow.com project). He said that we need to build online projects that don’t stem from or replicate our offline ideas (“think of something that could not happen before”) and that we need to “nurture the geeks who can really make a difference, not just hire them”.  At the closing of the conference he rose from the auditorium to put a question he said “he may regret”. He proposed for pdf to start a movement to kick-out the people in the European Commission who fund the wasted e-participation projects and give the money instead to some of the people who can do a better job with it. Well, I think only Tom could say this, which is in many people’s minds but nobody dares to express.
  • The other highlight, was watching and meeting in the flesh, the people of the Sunlight Foundation, the predominant force of e-transparency in the USA and possibly beyond. Ellen Miller, co-founder and executive director, said that transparency and technology is a hot issue right now, that “technology is not a slice of the pie, is the pan” and that when asked by the administration what should they do, their answer was “put out data in raw, machine-readable format; we’ll do the rest”.
    Esther Dyson, member of the Sunlight’s BoD, gave her top-line five points to consider and I keep from those: “power corrupts but also seduces, even people with little power. It’s not enough to change govts, we need to change citizens also” (quoted because it is relevant and true for my country Greece).

There are many more interesting points and discussions that went on and thanks to the amazing work by Civico, they are documented and archived.

Thanks to Google for making my presence feasible (as part of the Google fellows team) and thanks to Andrew Rasiej and Micah Sifry for being great hosts. See you next year (with better wi-fi access hopefully).

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Yes, everybody knows that already.
Personal Democracy Forum (pdf), the biggest event on politics and the internet which assembles leading political and technologies actors every year, after creating ripples in the USA, finally comes to Europe and Barcelona on 20 & 21 November.

And, naturally, I am really excited that as a “Google Fellow”, I have been given a unique opportunity to attend this great event as part of a 20-strong team from all over Europe which I really look forward to meet.

Micah Sifry and Andrew Rasiej are the two people leading pdf and TechPresident, the “sister” great blog resource on how political candidates are using the web, covering everything from campaign websites, online advertising, social media etc, up to how the campaign tools can be used in governance.

  • Andrew Rasiej has advised many American politicians like Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Dick Gephardt.  What is probably less known about Andrew in our part of the world, is that he is also a social entrepreneur by kick-starting various other projects. One example is MOUSE (Making Opportunities for and Education) which aims to improve technological access at schools in the NYC area. He also writes for Politico and appears in major media outlets while he has served as Chairman of the Howard Dean Technology Advisory Council in 2004. Andrew is also a senior technology advisor for the Sunlight Foundation, no introductions needed. During last year’s “World eDemocracy Forum” in Paris  he was nominated as Person of the Year, and I had the pleasure of watching and listening live to a very warm and inspiring person (who I didn’t have a chance to talk to then).
  • Micah Sifry has been a senior analyst with Public Campaign, a non-profit, non-partisan organization working on campaign finance reform. He has been an editor and writer with The Nation magazine and an author or co-author of various books like “Spoiling for a Fight: Third-Party Politics in America”, co-editor of  ”Rebooting America” (available online for free download at rebooting.personaldemocracy.com). He is also an adjunct professor at the Political Science Department of the CUNY/the Graduate Center.

It will be really interesting to witness the clash of the US with the European mentality towards the internet as a political campaigning tool and an e-democracy vehicle. The Obama saga overshadowed significant conversations and efforts that were under way in our old Europe and up until this great web-machine proved its worth in battle, a lot of people in Europe were quick to dismiss the effort as a victory for online marketing and nothing else. Others were quick to point a finger at the difference between online political marketing and e-democracy paradigms.

But after Obama became President, an even more interesting story started to unfold, with all the efforts and attention falling onto the issues of transparency and open government data. Probably, the moral of the story once again is that we have to stop thinking in silos. Yes, the Obama campaign was the greatest internet led marketing campaign to date. But it did open the gates “for more”, and once people are allowed in, it is difficult to regress to old methods and paradigms.

On the other hand, old Europe has still some cards up its sleeve. And my personal opinion is that it must resume its thinking around the issues of true e-democracy (a paradoxical term really) and e-participation which are not only different from online marketing but can also infuse another and more substantial meaning into e-government itself.

Now, if and how different we Europeans are from our American colleagues remains to be seen…at the pdf conference.

  • Follow Micah Sifry at http://twitter.com/mlsif
  • Follow Andrew Rasiej at http://twitter.com/rasiej
  • Follow pdf europe at http://twitter.com/PdF_Europe

I found out through a communique from Filiz Bikmen Bugay ( a true leader for philanthropy and social entrepreneurship in Europe and Turkey) the launch of a new project in Turkey, which I think is worth looking at.

The Sabanci Foundation (where Filiz is Head of Programmes), has just launched a new project called Turkey’s Changemakers, a weekly television program highlighting a new Changemaker from all across Turkey each week.

The first episode (with English subtitles)  is about the inspiring story of changemaker Dr. Zeynep Simsek, the Founding Director of the Harran University Medical School Public Health Department. Together with her colleague Dr. Ibrahim Koruk, she dedicated her work to improving health conditions of migrant farm workers which comprise almost 20% of the population in the Southeastern province of Sanliurfa (also known in short as ‘Urfa’). The episode was aired on Sunday 4 October 2009 on CNN Turk.

There is also a Turkey’s Changemakers fan club on Facebook in which each new programme is announced and where comments and suggestions are welcome.

The Sabanci Foundation is currently planning other phases of the ‘Turkey’s Changemakers’ project which will include the publication of a book, a series of DVDs and other initiatives to promote the program. By the way, the foundation was awarded the 2009 Raymond Georis Prize for Innovative Philanthropy , launched five years ago by the Network of European Foundations’ Mercator Fund, and aims to reward innovative high-impact European initiatives that illustrate European leadership on global and social issues.

Δημοσκοπήσεις τέλος μέχρι τις εκλογές, αλλά ο νομοθέτης ευτυχώς δεν προέβλεψε το ίντερνετ!
Την περίοδο λοιπόν των προεδρικών εκλογών στις ΗΠΑ, το Τechcrunch δημοσίευσε ένα άρθρο με τίτλο «Can Google Trends Predict the Election?” όπου έγραφε ότι εάν θεωρήσουμε τον συγκριτικό όγκο των αναζητήσεων για τα ονόματα των υποψηφίων στο Google κάποια ένδειξη, ο Obama θα κέρδιζε τις εκλογές (ξέρουμε όλοι τι έγινε μετά).

«Παίζοντας» λίγο λοιπόν με κάποια web-based εργαλεία, να τι βλέπουμε για τις ελληνικές εκλογές.

Κατ’αρχήν, το ενδιαφέρον για τις εκλογές μπορούμε να το δούμε και σε ένα γράφημα από το Trend Search της Nielsen, καταγράφοντας τις αναφορές του όρου «εκλογές» στα blogs. Δεν κρύβει εκπλήξεις, δεδομένου ότι είναι έντονο αμέσως μετά την προκήρυξη στις 2 Σεπτεμβρίου. Η φημολογία περί ανακοίνωσης εκλογών, φαίνεται ότι επιδρά και από την ανοδική τάση λίγες μέρες πριν. Μια μικρή μείωση παρατηρείται τις τελευταίες ημέρες (κόπωση?) και επιβεβαιώνεται και από τα στοιχεία της Google.

trendsearch-ekloges09

Χρησιμοποιώντας λοιπόν το Google Insights for Trends και βάζοντας σαν όρους αναζήτησης τα ονόματα των κομμάτων της Βουλής, η εικόνα είναι ξεκάθαρα υπέρ του ΠΑΣΟΚ, με δεύτερη τη Νέα Δημοκρατία, τρίτο το ΚΚΕ και ισοδύναμα νούμερα για ΣΥΡΙΖΑ και ΛΑΟΣ (οι αναζητήσεις έγιναν με τους όρους “Νεα Δημοκρατία” και ΝΔ μαζί και στον Σύριζα συμπεριλαμβάνεται και ο Συνασπισμός; το ΛΑΟΣ ίσως δεν είναι τόσο ακριβές λόγω της ίδιας της λέξης που είναι γενική).
Ενδιαφέρον στοιχείο, η πτώση των αναζητήσεων – μείωση ενδιαφέροντος ; – τις τελευταίες ημέρες.

google insights-search-ekloges09

Παρόμοια εικόνα και για τις αναζητήσεις με τα ονόματα των πολιτικών αρχηγών των 5 κομμάτων, όπου λόγω του μικρότερου όγκου των αναζητήσεων το γράφημα ισως να μην είναι τόσο αξιόπιστο για τις  λέξεις Τσίπρας, Αλαβάνος (μαζί εδώ σε μία καμπύλη) και Καρατζαφέρης . Μεταξύ Καραμανλή και Παπανδρέου, υπάρχει μία διευρυνόμενη απόσταση σε όφελος του Παπανδρέου ειδικά τις τελευταίες 10 ημέρες (δυναμική νίκης ίσως ?).

google insights-search-people

(Οι αριθμοί στα γραφήματα εξηγούνται εδώ για όσους ενδιαφέρονται).

Ξαναβάζοντας να δουλέψει το BlogPulse της Nielsen, (με τα τρία πρώτα κόμματα μόνο γιατί δεν αφήνει πειρσσότερα πεδία), παρατηρούμε πάλι μία έντονη διαφορά υπέρ του Πασόκ στις αναφορές σε blogs αλλά με μία διαφορά. Την μεγαλύτερη αναφορά του όρου ΚΚΕ σε σχέση με εκείνη της Νέας Δημοκρατίας κάτι που προφανώς μας λέει κάτι για τη σύνθεση του “ενεργού κοινού” στο ιντερνετ (που κατά μία έννοια επιβεβαιώνει και την έρευνα της MRB για τα Social Media όπου αναφέρεται ότι το ενεργό κοινό είναι κεντροαριστερής τοποθέτησης).

trendsearch-ekloges09

Το Trend Tool του IceRocket πάλι καταγράφει τις αναφορές στα blogs και βάζοντας τα ονόματα των κομμάτων, βλέπουμε ένα γενικό προβάδισμα του ΠΑΣΟΚ αλλά με κλείσιμο της ψαλίδας τις τελευταίες μέρες (υποθέτω λόγω του οτι η ΝΔ βρίσκεται σε περίοδο αρνητικού κλίματος γεγονός που δίνει τροφή σε blogs). Τα τρία άλλα κόμματα ακολουθούν ενώ βλέπουμε ένα spike για τον Συριζα στις 6 Σεπτεμβρίου που ίσως να οφείλεται στην υπόθεση της αρχηγίας του κόμματος.

icerocket-ekloges09-2

Χρησιμοποιώντας το IceRocket αυτή τη φορά για τα ονόματα των πολιτικών αρχηγών, η εικόνα είναι διαφορετική με την λέξη Καραμανλής να έχει πολλαπλάσιες αναφορές από των υπολοίπων. Αν είναι αλήθεια, αυτό σημαίνει ότι ίσως είναι ο σάκκος του μποξ αυτή τη στιγμή για τους bloggers!

icerocket-people-elections

…αλλά και πάλι όχι ίσως, μια και το BlogPulse διαφωνεί, φέρνοντας τη λέξη Παπανδρέου πρώτη και σε ανοδική τροχιά κάτι που συνάδει και με τις αναζητήσεις στο Google. Προφανώς οι διαφορές των δύο εργαλείων (IceRocket και BlogPulse) είναι αποτέλεσμα των διαφορετικών crawlers και της μεθοδολογίας που ακολουθούν.

blogpulse-people-09

Βεβαίως, τα αποτελέσματα των αναφορών στα blogs είναι ποιοτικά διαφορετικά από τα αποτελέσματα των αναζητήσεων στο Google.
Το ενδιαφέρον εδώ είναι λιγότερο οι ποσοτικές αναφορές αλλά η ποιοτική ανάλυση (πχ sentiment analysis) που όμως δεν μπορεί να γίνει με δωρεάν web εργαλεία (για την ελληνική γλώσσα τουλάχιστον). Επίσης ενδιαφέρον θα είχε η αντιστοίχιση με τα πραγματικά γεγονότα αλλά και τις αναφορές των παραδοσιακών ειδήσεων (TV κυρίως) ώστε να καταγραφούν οι αλληλεπιδράσεις.

Τα αποτελέσματα αναζήτησης στο Google όμως καταγράφουν μία τελείως άλλη εικόνα γιατί αφορούν το σύνολο του κοινού στο ίντερνετ -και όχι μόνο το ενεργό μέρος όπως οι bloggers- και πως αυτό αυθόρμητα αναζητεί πληροφορίες. Ως γνωστόν, η Google χρησιμοποιεί πειραματικά τα στοιχεία αναζήτησης για να προβλέψει τις επιδημίες γρίππης, το γνωστό Google Flu Trends, που βασίζεται στην υπόθεση ότι συγκεκριμένοι όροι αναζήτησης ίσως αποτελούν early warning για εμφάνιση γρίππης σε διάφορες χώρες.

Όσο η διείσδυση του ιντερνετ στον πληθυσμό θα διευρύνεται και όσο αυτή θα παρουσιάζει χαρακτηριστικά ισοκατανομής, τόσο περισσότερο παρόμοια στοιχεία σε συνδυασμό με σωστούς αλγόριθμους θα αποτελούν ακόμα ένα όπλο στα χέρια των αναλυτών και των επικοινωνιακών συμβούλων των κομμάτων…κι ας μην έχουμε δημοσκοπήσεις (…ας μείνει όμως μεταξύ μας αυτό, γιατί αν το ακούσει ο νομοθέτης προβλέπω απαγόρευση του Google !).

[UPDATE: Φαίνεται ότι σήμερα και το metablogging ανέβασε ένα post για το ίδιο θέμα με τίτλο "Google Trends για τα δύο μεγάλα κόμματα και τους αρχηγούς τους" όπου δίνει χρήσιμες πληροφορίες για την "κυβερνητική" αναμέτρηση κυρίως.]

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